A new enrollment study projects that the Elmbrook School District's resident enrollment will drop by 475 students, or 7.4 percent, between 2010 and 2015, prompting School Board members to begin asking questions about the district's future.
Board member Bob Ziegler said the projections set the stage for important discussions, including talks about Chapter 220 and Open Enrollment participation, whether closing an elementary school should be considered and whether a permanent 4-year-old kindergarten program should be created.
"I really can't understate the importance of this," Ziegler said. "This is a watershed, if you will. We're at a crossroads. This is critical."
Board President Tom Gehl called for community members to participate in the discussions, expected to occur throughout the current school year.
"We can't take you to a place that you don't want us to go," Gehl said. "So let us know what's on your minds and on your hearts.'
Trend is continuing
In line with past projections, the study shows Elmbrook's ongoing resident enrollment decline will continue at least through the 2014-15 school year. Between now and then, the district is expected to lose an average of 95 students each year, a decrease of 1.5 percent annually. In total, Elmbrook expects to go from 6,430 resident students this year to 5,955 in 2014-15.
The biggest drop in resident enrollment is expected during the 2010-11 school year, when the district is projected to lose 141 students.
Superintendent Matt Gibson said the resident enrollment drop, which began five years ago, can be blamed on the combined impact of a decline in birth rate and a slowdown in the housing market.
Resident enrollment directly affects the district's revenue cap, the amount it is allowed to collect in state aid and taxes. Generally, a drop in enrollment means a drop in state aid. This could mean higher property taxes for district residents to help compensate for lost revenue. However, decreases in enrollment don't affect state aid until the year after they occur, helping soften the blow to school districts and taxpayers.
Schools affected differently
Projections show Brookfield East High School as the building to be hardest hit by the continuing decline. East is expected to lose 136 resident students during the next five years. Brookfield Central is likely to lose 41.
Losses are more equal in Elmbrook's middle schools. Pilgrim Park Middle School is expected to lose 121 students and Wisconsin Hills Middle School, 126.
Of the district's six elementary schools, Burleigh Elementary is expected to lose the largest number of resident students: 34. Tonawanda Elementary is projected to fare the best, losing only 10. Brookfield, Dixon, Hillside and Swanson elementary schools all are expected to lose about 22 students.
Financial planning on tap
The five-year enrollment projections will be used by district staff and board members in January, when they'll decide how many new Open Enrollment seats to open next year. The study also will be used to calculate the district's five-year financial projections, and will shape ongoing work on the five-year financial plan.
Five-year financial projections will be presented to School Board members at 7 p.m. Nov. 24 at Elmbrook's Central Administrative Offices.
BY THE NUMBERS
The five-year enrollment study shows grade levels will experience the enrollment decrease differently.
177
resident students are expected to leave Elmbrook high schools in the next five years
247
resident students are expected to leave Elmbrook middle schools in the next five years
133
resident students are expected to leave Elmbrook elementary schools in the next five years
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